World markets
head for reality check after
month of Trump
World markets head for reality check after month of Trump
Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe and Nell Mackenzie
Reuters
Published 15 minutes ago
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November was a month of clear winners and losers from Donald Trump’s Nov. 5
U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США). election victory.
Trump trades, essentially punishing tariff-sensitive assets from European
exporters to Mexico’s peso and driving investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции towards U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США). stocks and the
dollar, proved successful. Wall Street has rallied, the dollar gained 2%
against rival major currencies and bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin surged.
But December could be bumpy, with the Trump trade vulnerable to a potential
bond market backlash against fiscal largesse, while tariffs might boost
inflation and snarl up supply chains.
“Elevated (U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США).) equity valuations reflect complacency as the more challenging
environment we expect is not priced in,” BCA Research said.
Here’s a look at some assets in the spotlight.
CURRENCY WOES
The euro has suffered its worst monthly drop since early 2022, losing just
over 3% to around $1.05, on U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США). tariff risks, political upheaval in Germany• Германия
and France• Франция and a sharp regional economic downturn.
Analysts expect more volatility in the $7.5 trillion-a-day currency markets as
debate rages about how low the euro can go and whether Trump really will boost
the U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США). economy while most others suffer.
Mexico’s peso dropped over 1% against the dollar in November, sterling lost
almost 2%. China’s offshore yuan was set for its biggest monthly drop since
Aug 2023, down almost 2%.
The key question in FX markets, Monex Europe senior market analyst Nick Rees
said, is: “does Trump’s election victory presage a fundamental structural
shift in the global economy, or are markets just engaged in a knee-jerk
panic?”
BITCOIN• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin, BOOM OR BUST?
If there’s one asset that smashed it out of the park in November, it’s
bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin.
The crypto currency• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта has surged 37%, briefly eying the $100,000 milestone, on
hopes of a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment under Trump.
The last time bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin surged as much was February, when money• Отдых, развлечения » Хобби » Коллекционирование » Нумизматика » Монета » Средневековые монеты » Марка (весовая и денежная единица) flooded into new
bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin exchange-traded products.
So, what’s next? For some in the industry, a rise to $100,000 would mark• Отдых, развлечения » Хобби » Коллекционирование » Нумизматика » Монета » Средневековые монеты » Марка (весовая и денежная единица) the
niche asset finally going mainstream.
“If bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin smashes through the $100,000 level... then even more people could
find crypto on their radar,” said AJ Bell investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции analyst Dan Coatsworth.
Others reckon there is a risk of speculative excess, meaning bitcoin• Экономика » Финансы » Платежные средства » Платежные системы интернета » Криптовалюта » Bitcoin’s surge
could just as easily be followed by a sharp fall that catches some investors
out.
TECH UNDER TARIFFS
Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq• Экономика » Финансы » Финансовый рынок » Рынок ценных бумаг » Биржи » Биржевые индексы » Nasdaq 100 has scored its best monthly gain since
June as Trump ally Elon Musk• Объект человек » Персоналии по алфавиту » Персоналии на Ма » Маск, Илон’s Tesla• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Te » Tesla Motors surged 33% and AI fervor boosted Nvidia• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Nv » Nvidia
even as the chipmaker forecast slower sales growth.
Risks are growing for tech, as Trump’s tariffs plans threaten supply chains
and an AI spending splurge by so-called hyperscalers such as Microsoft• Объект бренды » Бренды на m » Microsoft, Meta
and Amazon• Объект бренды » Бренды на a » Amazon sparks investor• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции » Инвестор anxiety.
“There’s an intense arms race between the main hyperscalers, which could be
over-investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции,” said Mikhail Zherev, manager of Amati Global Investors’
innovation fund. “We have reduced our exposure (to AI).”
The European Central Bank• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Ев » Европейский центральный банк (ЕЦБ)
• Объект организация » Организации по алфавиту » Организации на Со » Совет Европы » Европейский центральный банк (ЕЦБ) warned last week of “adverse global spillovers” if
an AI “bubble” bursts and the tech stocks that dominate global equity markets
slump.
BANK RUN
Investors loved big U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США). banks but loathed European ones.
An index of U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США). banking stocks soared 13% in November, the best month in a
year, driven by deregulation hopes under Trump.
But European bank shares have slumped 5% as a weakening economy boosted
rate-cut bets. Still, they have rallied 16% so far this year, benefiting from
relatively higher lending rates.
Europe’s banks remain net sold by hedge funds “despite good performance” said
a JPMorgan prime brokerage note to clients seen by Reuters on Wednesday.
The sector must respond and rev up fee making activities from asset and wealth
management as well as dealmaking and investment• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции banking, a Deutsche Bank• Объект бренды » Бренды на d » Deutsche Bank
report said.
BOND BUDDIES NO MORE
November may well mark• Отдых, развлечения » Хобби » Коллекционирование » Нумизматика » Монета » Средневековые монеты » Марка (весовая и денежная единица) the month that major bond markets (which usually move
together) parted company.
Although U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США). 10-year Treasury yields end November little changed on the
month, the direction matters and that’s pointed higher.
U.S• Соединённые Штаты Америки (США). borrowing costs have surged 60 basis points since mid-September on strong
data and expectations for higher inflation and fiscal deficits under Trump’s
policies.
Capital Economics sees Treasury yields rising to 4.5% by year-end, from around
4.24% now.
In contrast, Germany• Германия’s 10-year yields are down over 20 bps at around 2.15%,
set for their biggest monthly fall of 2024, on weakening economic activity,
Trump tariff threats and Russia-Ukraine• Украина escalation.
In Japan it’s a different story again, with yields set for the biggest monthly
jump since May, partly as a post Trump-win yen slide boosts speculation on a
rate hike next month.
Be smart with your money• Отдых, развлечения » Хобби » Коллекционирование » Нумизматика » Монета » Средневековые монеты » Марка (весовая и денежная единица). Get the latest investing insights delivered right to
your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor• Экономика » Финансы » Инвестиции » Инвестор newsletter. Sign up
today .
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